Investment analysts debate on TV about the timing of the next recession. The Dow is on a roller coaster ride, and the pundits keep using the word "unprecedented" to describe each day's results.
Yes, it's a volatile market. But unprecedented? Not so much.
Donald Broughton shares his thoughts about "Opportunities and Threats in the New Freight Economy" at the 2018 DAT User Conference.
Consider this: Sentiment is frothy heading into the new year, and those market watchers are looking for reasons to worry:
- Uncertainty from new trade agreements and the threat of tariffs with major trading partners
- Concerns about decelerating rates of growth in other large economies
- Large swings in currency valuation and currency devaluations that threaten the political leadership of other countries
- A dramatic decline in the price of crude oil
- Increasing potential for the impeachment of the US President, who is mired in controversy and scandal
- Innovative technologies are threatening to disrupt the status quo and completely upend major industry players
- Freight volumes continue to grow, yet market decides to sell cyclically sensitive stocks, especially transports
Sound familiar? That's a summary of market conditions...in 1998.
While today's situation is eerily similar, the underlying volume of goods flow continues to be a reliable indicator. Keep your eye on freight volumes. As they move, so goes the economy.
Watch Broughton discuss the current economic climate on CNBC.
Donald Broughton, Principal and Managing Partner of Broughton Capital, is a financial analyst with decades of experience in the transportation industry. Contact him at email@example.com.