The freight market can look deceptively calm from a distance. You glance at the year-over-year numbers, see minimal movement in topline rates, and might be tempted to think things are “stable.” But any veteran of the supply chain knows that “stable” rarely means “predictable.”
To navigate this complexity, you need more than just data points; you need context. That is why U.S. Bank and DAT Freight & Analytics have joined forces. We are proud to announce the launch of the inaugural U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index – Rates Edition.
This new quarterly publication combines leading freight payment expertise from U.S. Bank with the unparalleled market data of DAT. The result is an authoritative, deep-dive perspective on the trends actually driving your transportation costs.
This partnership merges financial precision with operational reality. The Rates Edition isn’t just about telling you what happened last quarter—it’s about helping you understand why it happened, so you can plan for what comes next.
Download the full U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index – Rates Edition here
What you’ll find inside
The Rates Edition goes beyond simple rate tracking. It provides a holistic view of the freight market, designed specifically for supply chain directors and logistics managers who need to explain budget variances to their CFOs.
Each quarterly report includes:
- Dry van spot & contract rates: A breakdown of the spread between spot and contract markets, helping you evaluate your procurement strategy.
- Fuel cost trends: Analysis of fuel surcharges and their relationship to diesel prices.
- Volume trends: Insight into shipment volumes to help gauge demand pressure.
- Economic context: Expert commentary on the macroeconomic factors influencing freight capacity and pricing.
This comprehensive approach allows you to benchmark your performance against the broader market and identify areas where you might be overspending or missing opportunities.
Trend teaser: The devil is in the details
To give you a taste of the insights available in this inaugural report, let’s look at a few trends that defined the end of last year. On the surface, the market seemed quiet. But digging deeper reveals a different story.
1. Stability vs. predictability
If you looked only at the year-over-year comparison for spot and contract rates, you’d see very little movement. It’s easy to interpret that as a stable market. However, stability does not equal predictability.
Beneath that flat line, carrier capacity is actually shrinking. We are seeing subtle but meaningful shifts to watch where leverage shifts back and forth between shippers and carriers. If you aren’t watching closely, you miss the chance to lock in favorable rates or adjust your routing guides before capacity tightens.
2. The fuel surcharge disconnect
One of the most surprising findings in our Q4 analysis involves fuel. Typically, fuel surcharges move in lockstep with diesel prices. When the pump price drops, your surcharge should drop.
That didn’t happen in November. While diesel prices were falling, fuel surcharges actually jumped by 7.5%.
Why the disconnect? It often comes down to timing, refinery outages, and the specific formulas used in carrier contracts. The full report breaks down exactly what drove this anomaly and how you can protect your budget from similar surprises in 2026.
3. Timing was everything
In October, we saw a convergence in the gap between spot and contract rates. For shippers paying close attention, this created a tactical window. It was the perfect moment to renegotiate certain lanes or shift volume to the spot market to capture savings.
That window narrowed, though. The report shows how the market dynamics shifted and the gap widened in November. The Index highlights exactly when these convergence points happen and, more importantly, why they appear, helping you anticipate the next one.
Turn data into action
In a complex market, preparation always beats reaction.
We are entering 2026 with a lot of unknowns. Capacity constraints are looming, and policy shifts could alter the landscape overnight. The shippers who succeed won’t be the ones who react fastest to chaos; they will be the ones who saw the chaos coming and adjusted their strategy beforehand.
Keeping a pulse on these trends allows you to act strategically rather than tactically. It changes the conversation from “How do we fix this overage?” to “How do we leverage this opportunity?”
Don’t let market conditions force your hand. Get the clarity you need to navigate whatever comes next.
Download the full U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index – Rates Edition here
