If you’ve been feeling like the math just doesn’t work anymore, you’re not alone.
At the time of writing, diesel has jumped nearly $1.28 per gallon in just two weeks following the Middle East conflict, pushing the national retail average to $5.38 a gallon. For the average long-haul dry van owner-operator, gross profit per mile is now hovering near zero, a stark drop from the roughly $0.20/mile carriers were pocketing just a few months ago.
We surveyed over 540 carriers earlier this month to understand how the diesel spike is affecting real operations. The results were stark: 93.7% said they were significantly impacted. Nearly 20% had already parked trucks. The message is loud and clear: Carriers are doing everything they can to stay afloat; bidding higher, avoiding heavy loads, cutting deadhead, getting more selective. But the rate environment hasn’t kept pace. What are they supposed to do?
We have an idea. This guide is about what the carriers who are navigating this best are doing differently. Not magic, just more deliberate decisions, made with better information.
First, let’s look at what’s actually happening
The diesel story is more complicated than just the price at the pump.
Dry van spot rates are actually up 25% year over year. On the surface, that sounds like good news. But here’s the problem: fuel surcharges have jumped 36% in just two weeks, from $0.44/mile to $0.60/mile, and the linehaul rate (the part you actually negotiate) fell another $0.08/mile last week. The gains showing up in all-in numbers are almost entirely fuel surcharge,not real revenue.
Meanwhile, diesel now represents 39% of total operating costs, up from 34% before the conflict. To just hold even on your bottom line requires either a $0.20/mile rate increase or meaningful reductions somewhere in your cost structure. Right now, the market isn’t giving most carriers that $0.20.
That’s the squeeze.
And it’s why the decisions you make on each load, meaning which lanes you run, how much deadhead you accept, what weight you’re willing to haul, and how fast you get paid, matter more right now than they have in years.
What successful carriers are doing right now
The carriers protecting their margins in this environment aren’t necessarily running more miles.hey’re running smarter miles.
Our survey found that:
- 85.5% of carriers are already bidding higher
- 56.2% are being more selective on posted rates
- 43.6% are avoiding heavier loads
- 44.9% are driving fewer miles
The carriers who are staying profitable are using data to make better decisions faster, and building habits that hold up under pressure.
Here’s what that looks like in practice:
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Know what a load should pay before you bid
Nothing costs more than accepting a rate based on gut feel. Rates shift quickly by lane, by day, and by region.n a market this volatile, a rate that worked 10 days ago may not work at $5.27 diesel.
Before you negotiate, know what your specific lane is actually paying right now. That number exists and it takes less than two minutes to check.
In a market where every mile costs more, the loads you don’t take matter just as much as the ones you do.
Check your lane rates in RateView →
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Cut deadhead before it cuts your margin
Empty miles have always been a cost. At $5.27 a gallon, they’re a much bigger one.
Running 100 deadhead miles to reach a pickup costs more than it did six months ago and if the load rate doesn’t reflect that, those miles are draining your margin before the load even starts.
28.4% of carriers in our survey said they’re now actively avoiding certain lanes specifically because of fuel cost.
The practical move: Set your maximum deadhead distance before you browse loads, not after you’ve already found one. Build the constraint into your search so you only see loads that already work for your truck’s position. While in DAT One, take a look at TriHaul. Instead of just booking the return trip on a low-paying backhaul lane, TriHaul automatically suggests triangular routes — adding a leg to your route that can replace a weak backhaul with two shorter, better-paying loads. The tool shows you up to 5 route alternatives with average rates per loaded mile, so you can quickly compare whether the extra stop is worth it. Carriers who use it regularly have seen revenue jump on roundtrips where the backhaul rate would have otherwise killed the run.
Small habit shifts equal real impact across a week of bookings.
Filter loads by deadhead in DAT One →
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Prioritize lighter loads
A fully loaded 80,000-lb truck burns measurably more fuel per mile than a lighter haul. In a high-diesel environment, what you’re pulling is a margin decision.
43.6% of carriers in our survey are already avoiding heavier loads.
If you have flexibility, use your equipment type and load requirement filters to search for freight that uses less fuel. It won’t always be possible depending on your network, but when you have options, lighter loads are a real lever right now.
Filter loads by weight in DAT One →
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Pressure-test your lanes
Beyond individual load decisions, it’s worth taking a step back and asking whether your core lanes still work at today’s diesel prices.
A lane that ran profitably at $4.00 diesel may not at $5.27. The math has changed.
Some carriers are finding that small adjustments (a slightly shorter primary haul, a better backhaul option, or a region with stronger linehaul rates) can improve weekly margins without requiring a complete operational overhaul.
Pull the lane-level rate data and ask the honest question:Is this lane absorbing the fuel cost increase, or am I subsidizing it with my margin?
If it’s the latter, it’s worth knowing now rather than in three weeks.
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Reduce time between loads and payment
When margins are this tight, every hour your truck sits, and every day you wait to get paid, matters.
Some carriers are reducing downtime by booking loads instantly instead of waiting on callbacks or negotiations. Others are prioritizing freight that comes with faster payment built in.
In a market where fuel costs hit your card the moment you pull away from the pump, speed and certainty matter more.
The Convoy Platform enables carriers to book loads instantly at a rate that works for them, with QuickPay included on every load, helping reduce downtime and speed up cash flow.
Browse loads on the Convoy Platform →
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Stabilize cash flow so you can be selective
Carriers told us about their cash flow timing problems.
Fuel costs hit your card immediately. Payment on your last load may still be pending. And when margins are tight, that gap can force decisions you wouldn’t otherwise make — like taking a load at a rate that doesn’t quite work just to keep moving.
Some carriers are solving this by shortening the time between delivery and payout.
With invoice factoring through Outgo, funds are available in minutes after delivery, helping reduce cash flow pressure and giving you more flexibility to make better load decisions.
Putting this into practice
None of these are massive changes on their own. But together, they add up to a different way of running your business; one that’s intentional, data-driven, and resilient in a high-cost market.
That’s exactly what DAT is built to support.
From lane-level rate data to smarter load discovery to faster payment options, the goal is simple: give you the tools to make better decisions on every load.
DAT is in your corner
We know this is a hard stretch.
We see it in the data every day, and we hear it directly from carriers across the country.
The goal of everything DAT does right now — the data, the tools, and the load board — is to make sure you have what you need to keep moving forward.
Before you decide to sit out, take a look at your lanes. The right adjustments can make all the difference.
