The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index edged up from 72.4% in Q3 2025 to 73.5% in Q4, but don’t read that as a capacity surge. The index remains near its lowest point in over a decade, and carriers are being deliberate about where new trucks go. Rather than chasing spot freight, major fleets are steering capacity toward dedicated, specialized, and cross-border Mexico lanes — Werner being the clearest example, cutting one-way truck counts by nearly 14% year-over-year while acquiring FirstFleet to grow its dedicated footprint by 50%.
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The broader story is one of disciplined restructuring in anticipation of a market turn. Publicly-owned carriers are beginning to report low single-digit contract rate increases, and shipper anxiety around capacity availability and cargo security is mounting. Regulatory headwinds — including FMCSA’s crackdown on non-domiciled CDLs and substandard CDL schools — are expected to accelerate small carrier attrition and tighten the supply side further. Even carriers like Covenant, which plan to run a modestly smaller fleet in 2026, are eyeing niche acquisitions and reporting a sharp uptick in shipper bid activity. The setup is increasingly favorable for carriers willing to stay patient.
National dry van linehaul spot rates
The national 7-day average linehaul spot rate (excluding fuel) for dry van trucks saw a significant increase last week. This surge occurred despite the almost $1.28 per gallon jump in over-the-road diesel to $5.58/gal since the Middle East War started four weeks ago. Carriers are now recovering a greater percentage of the fuel surcharge, which is currently $0.69/mile.
The current rate of $1.97 per mile remains elevated. This figure is significantly higher than previous years, sitting $0.34 (21%) above the rate recorded a year ago. Furthermore, when excluding the years affected by the pandemic, the rate is still $0.36 (19%) higher than the five-year average.
Spot rates saw a spike in linehaul rates, up $0.10 penny per mile last week on DAT’s top 50 lanes by load volume, reaching an average of $2.29 per mile. This average is $0.32 higher than the national 7-day rolling average spot rate.
In contrast, the 13 key Midwest states, which account for nearly half of the national load volume and are often seen as a bellwether for national trends, experienced a $0.10 per mile surge in spot rates, settling at $2.36 per mile. The Midwest average remains $0.39 above the national 7-day rolling average.
Dry Van Market Conditions
The national dry van load-to-truck ratio was largely unchanged last week, holding steady at 10.6 loads per truck. Load post volume remained flat week-over-week, despite being nearly double the volume recorded during the same period last year and significantly higher than the 10-year average (excluding the 2021 and 2022 pandemic years).
