Dry van spot linehaul rates paid to carriers averaged $2.21 per mile this week, minus fuel, up 1.1%, or $0.02 per mile, from the prior week. Rates climbed 33.6%, or $0.55 per mile, year over year and held 21.4%, or $0.39 per mile, above the nine-year seasonal average of $1.82 per mile, near the top of the historical range.
All rates cited are linehaul only. They exclude fuel costs and surcharges unless otherwise noted.
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Bellwether states
The 10 dry van bellwether states posted a moves-weighted outbound rate of $2.91 per mile this week, up 1.1%, or $0.03 per mile, week over week and up 36.9%, or $0.79 per mile, year over year. The roster carried 35.7% of all U.S. state-outbound dry van loads, in line with its recent baseline near 35%.
Regional rate trends
| Dry Van — Top 10 Origins by Rate Per Mile · Week Ending September 4, 2026 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Origin Region | Avg RPM | WoW % | YoY % |
| 1 | Ohio River | $2.67 | +2.5% | +40.7% |
| 2 | Great Lakes | $2.67 | +3.4% | +38.1% |
| 3 | California | $2.51 | +0.5% | +30.5% |
| 4 | Upper Atlantic | $2.37 | +2.3% | +40.7% |
| 5 | Lower Midwest | $2.36 | +1.6% | +32.7% |
| 6 | Lower Atlantic | $2.34 | +1.2% | +39.3% |
| 7 | Southeast | $2.29 | +0.7% | +37.1% |
| 8 | Carolinas | $2.26 | +0.8% | +36.1% |
| 9 | South Central | $2.08 | +0.4% | +28.0% |
| 10 | Florida-So Georgia | $1.51 | +1.3% | +31.6% |
The top 10 origins carried 87.8% of all U.S. outbound loads moved in the week. Great Lakes held up best week over week, up 3.4%, with rates firming across nearly every leading origin as the market steadied after the month-end push.
Market conditions
Dry van demand held roughly steady while capacity edged back into the market. Load posts slipped 0.9% week over week but remain 42.2% above last year, and truck posts rose 1.4% on the week while sitting 17.2% below a year ago. With trucks returning faster than freight, the load-to-truck ratio eased to 11.47 from 11.73 a week earlier, still well above the 6.68 of a year ago.
The latest ISM manufacturing survey suggests freight is shifting rather than disappearing. A transportation-equipment panelist described volume as steady but flagged a customer relocating production from U.S. plants to Mexico, and a machinery respondent said they have pushed more sourcing offshore to offset costs — a nearshoring shift that pulls volume onto cross-border lanes like the Laredo gateway and reshapes domestic linehaul more than it adds to it. Electronics and miscellaneous-manufacturing respondents also point to an AI-driven supply scramble, with semiconductors, connectors, and government orders expanding and lead times the tightest since the post-COVID stretch, generating high-value freight tied to data-center buildout even as other corners of manufacturing cool. Several panelists linked rising input costs to a risk that consumer purchasing power softens, which is worth watching given how much of dry van demand rides on consumer-goods replenishment.
Short-term outlook
The 35-day DAT Rate Forecast puts dry van spot linehaul at $2.20 per mile in mid-October, within an uncertainty band of about plus or minus $0.08 per mile (3.5% of the forecast point). Across equipment, the dry van band ranks widest. That end-of-forecast rate stands about $0.53 per mile above the actual rate near the same date a year earlier ($1.68 per mile).
