The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index for June indicates a continued downturn in the industry, marking the fourth consecutive month of soft volumes and persistent overcapacity. Despite some potential for near-term improvement, several factors are prolonging the challenging environment for carriers. The Volume Index in June registered 41.5 (seasonally adjusted), a slight decrease from 42.5 in May. This sustained weakness is primarily due to tariff-related effects, specifically the quickly rescinded April tariffs and the ongoing issue of overcapacity within the for-hire sector.
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The Supply-Demand Balance decreased to 44.4 (seasonally adjusted) in June from 46.1 in May. This shift is a direct result of declining volumes and increased capacity, leading to a looser market balance as tariffs took effect. While near-term demand is anticipated to improve, the market is poised to enter a payback period following multiple instances of freight pull-forwards. Even with modest pass-through, the inflationary effects of tariffs are likely to contribute to continued softness in goods demand in the coming months.
The supply-demand balance is expected to remain at or below 50 in the near term, as the impact of tariffs on demand continues to counteract ongoing declines in capacity.
Load-to-Truck Ratio
After a significant surge in volume at the end of last month, the market began to cool in August. Load posts decreased by 15% last week, though they remain 7% higher than the previous year. This coincided with a slight reduction in carrier equipment posts, leading to a dry van load-to-truck ratio of 5.67.
Linehaul spot rates
After remaining flat during the second half of July, dry van linehaul spot rates started August down a penny, averaging just over $1.64 per mile, but $0.02 higher than the same time last year and $0.05 higher than in 2023.
The average rate for DAT’s top 50 lanes by load volume remained unchanged at $1.99 per mile and $0.35 higher than the national 7-day rolling average spot rate.
In the 13 key Midwest states, which represent 46% of national load volume and often indicate future national trends, spot rates were up a penny on a 17% lower volume of loads moved. Carriers in these states earned an average of $1.87 per mile for the second week, which is $0.23 above the national 7-day rolling average.
