Flatbed spot rates
Flatbed spot linehaul rates paid to carriers averaged $2.70 per mile this week, minus fuel, down 0.8%, or $0.02 per mile, from the prior week. Rates climbed 35.1%, or $0.70 per mile, year over year and held 28.3%, or $0.59 per mile, above the nine-year seasonal average of $2.10 per mile, near the top of the historical range.
All rates cited are linehaul only. They exclude fuel costs and surcharges unless otherwise noted.
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Bellwether states
The 10 flatbed bellwether states posted a moves-weighted outbound rate of $3.37 per mile this week, down 1.0%, or $0.04 per mile, week over week and up 34.0%, or $0.85 per mile, year over year. The roster carried 52.4% of all U.S. state-outbound flatbed loads, in line with its recent baseline near 52%.
Regional rate trends
| Flatbed — Top 10 Origins by Rate Per Mile · Week Ending August 21, 2026 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Origin Region | Avg RPM | WoW % | YoY % |
| 1 | Ohio River | $3.21 | +0.8% | +44.2% |
| 2 | Southeast | $3.13 | -2.5% | +39.1% |
| 3 | Carolinas | $2.93 | -0.1% | +40.4% |
| 4 | Great Lakes | $2.73 | -0.3% | +33.4% |
| 5 | South Central | $2.62 | -3.5% | +32.1% |
| 6 | Lower Midwest | $2.59 | -2.6% | +33.4% |
| 7 | Upper Atlantic | $2.53 | +3.9% | +32.5% |
| 8 | California | $2.42 | -4.4% | +42.9% |
| 9 | Florida-So Georgia | $2.34 | -0.9% | +34.6% |
| 10 | Lower Mountain | $1.90 | +0.4% | +31.7% |
The top 10 origins carried 87.5% of all U.S. outbound loads moved in the week. Upper Atlantic led week over week at +3.9%, while most leading origins eased from the prior week as summer volumes softened.
Market conditions
Load posts were up 2.6% week over week and up 30.1% year over year, while truck posts were down 5.4% week over week and down 26.3% year over year. With capacity pulling back faster than freight, the load-to-truck ratio firmed to 36.11, up from 33.31 a week earlier and well above 20.44 a year ago.
Short-term outlook
The 35-day DAT Rate Forecast puts flatbed spot linehaul at $2.65 per mile in late September, within an uncertainty band of about plus or minus $0.08 per mile (3.0% of the forecast point). That end-of-forecast rate stands about $0.61 per mile above the actual rate near the same date a year earlier ($2.04 per mile).
Freight demand outlook
Single-family housing starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 808,000 in July, down 9.9% from June — the third decline in the past four months — as mortgage rates near 6.7% and affordability keep buyers on the sidelines. That’s a signal worth watching for flatbed carriers: single-family building is one of the more reliable leading indicators for open-deck freight, since every start pulls lumber, drywall, roofing, trusses, and other building materials onto flatbed trailers. When ground-breaking slows, that softness tends to show up in flatbed load volumes over the following one to two quarters, so July’s print points to a soft patch for construction-linked freight heading into the back half of the year.
The read isn’t all one direction, though. Building permits rose 5.0% in July to a 1.443 million annual rate, and single-family authorizations climbed 2.5% to 894,000. Permits lead starts, so that gap suggests builders are pausing rather than pulling out, leaving room for starts — and the flatbed demand that follows them — to rebound later in the year if rates ease. Carriers running open-deck should treat the current stretch as a demand headwind to plan around, not a structural break, and watch permits and mortgage rates for the first sign the construction pipeline turns back up.
