A significant decline in the volume of corrugated cardboard shipments is a major warning sign for the trucking industry, as cardboard serves as a reliable leading indicator of consumer demand for packaged goods. US corrugated box shipments fell to the lowest third-quarter reading since 2015, according to data from the Fibre Box Association. This slump is intensifying concerns about a weak holiday season, leading to direct implications for trucking volumes. Since corrugated cardboard is the material used to package nearly all consumer goods shipped to and from retailers, reduced orders for boxes means less freight hitting the road.
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This drop in volume, coupled with flat or below-normal orders reported by packaging companies in October, suggests that retailers are anticipating a lackluster consumer shopping season and are therefore not restocking inventory aggressively. For truckload carriers—particularly those relying on dry van capacity for general retail and food commodities—the continued weakness in corrugated board shipments is another worrying economic sign, signaling prolonged low freight volumes and keeping downward pressure on already struggling spot rates.
National dry van linehaul spot rates
Spot dry van linehaul rates increased by $0.07 per mile last week, settling at an average of $1.75 per mile. This rate is just $0.05 higher than the same week last year or slightly less than 3%.
The average rate for DAT’s top 50 lanes by load volume increased by $0.05 per mile last week, averaging $2.02 per mile and $0.27 higher than the national 7-day rolling average spot rate.
In the 13 key Midwest states, which represent 45% of national load volume and often indicate future national trends, spot rates increased by $0.06 per mile to $1.97 per mile, which was $0.22 above the national 7-day rolling average.
