The factory floor is still humming. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7% in March, a slight uptick from February’s 52.4% and the third consecutive month of expansion. For truckload carriers and brokers, that’s generally good news — manufacturing activity is a leading driver of dry van and flatbed freight demand, and three straight months above 50 signals a sector that’s generating loads.
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The March reading is the highest PMI since August 2022, which puts it in a meaningful historical context. We’re not just treading water — this is the strongest factory output signal in nearly four years. New Orders expanded for the third straight month as well, coming in at 53.5%, and Production climbed to 55.1%, up 1.6 points from February.
The catch? The confidence behind those numbers is softening. Demand sentiment flipped to a 1-to-1 ratio of positive-to-negative comments in March, down from a 2-to-1 positive skew in February. Growth is real, but manufacturers are hedging their outlook.
For brokers and carriers, the ISM PMI is a green light with a yellow flag waving. Demand is there. The cost environment is tightening. How those two forces balance through Q2 will go a long way toward determining whether this freight recovery holds.
National dry van linehaul spot rates
The national 7-day average dry van linehaul spot rate (excluding fuel) has increased sharply, climbing $0.12 per mile over the last two weeks, with a significant $0.07 jump just last week. With over-the-road diesel prices remaining stable at around $5.85/gallon since the Middle East War began a month ago, spot market carriers are now retaining a larger portion of the fuel surcharge, which is currently at $0.69/mile.
Excluding fuel, the current linehaul rate of $2.04 is significantly higher than previous periods: it is $0.39 (24%) above the rate from one year ago and $0.44 (21%) higher than the five-year average when excluding pandemic-affected years.
Spot rates on DAT’s top 50 lanes by load volume saw an even steeper increase last week, rising by another $0.11 per mile to average $2.40 per mile. This average is $0.40 higher than the national 7-day rolling spot rate.
Similarly, the 13 key Midwest states—which serve as a national bellwether and account for nearly half of the country’s load volume—experienced a strong surge of $0.08 per mile, settling at an average of $2.44 per mile. Consistent with the trend on top lanes, the Midwest average remains $0.40 above the national 7-day rolling average.
Dry Van Market Conditions
The national dry van load-to-truck ratio fell to 8.96 last week, marking a 12% decrease. This drop was a correction following a month-end surge in the previous week, evidenced by a 14% decline in load posts and a 2% reduction in equipment posts. Despite this recent slowdown, load post volume remains exceptionally high, hitting the highest weekly total in the last decade. This volume is nearly 40% higher than the same week last year and doubles the 10-year average (excluding the pandemic years of 2021 and 2022).
