The April PMI registered at 48.7%, a decline from 49% in March, indicating decreased industry confidence and confusion over the administration’s tariff policy. A PMI reading below 50.0% signifies economic contraction.
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The ISM’s production index fell by 4.3 percentage points to 44%, which raises concerns for Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing business survey committee. He noted that this measure typically correlates with revenue and reflects the negative impact of tariffs. Manufacturers have scaled back production to align with waning demand; for instance, export orders plummeted by 6.5 percentage points to 43.1% as demand diminished.
“We’re headed in the wrong direction,” Fiore remarked during a media call on Thursday. “I don’t foresee any relief in the near term, and in May, we’re likely to see more of this trend.”
Fiore highlighted that 82% of comments from ISM survey respondents were related to concerns about tariffs, as manufacturers experience what he termed “tariff whiplash” due to rapid policy changes that have created confusion and uncertainty.
“Factory output has fallen for the second consecutive month, with tariffs widely blamed for the slump in export orders and reduced spending among customers amid rising uncertainty,” stated Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence..
Load-to-Truck Ratio
Flatbed load post volumes were mostly flat last week, while capacity loosened resulting in a 5% w/w increase in equipment posts. Volumes are 18% higher than last year and 8% lower than the Week 18 long-term average. Last week’s flatbed load-to-truck ratio (LTR) ended at 32.10, down 6% w/w.
Spot rates
Flatbed spot rates were flat last week, averaging just over $2.16/mile on a 17% higher w/w volume spanning month-end. Compared to last year, the flatbed 7-day rolling average is $0.16/mile higher and $0.02/mile higher than 2023.
