The seasonally adjusted trucking ton-mile index (TTMI) for May indicates a cooling in demand for for-hire trucking services in the USA after strong growth in March and April. Here are the key points:
This index is co-authored by Professor Jason Miller and Yemisi Bolumole, at the Michigan State University, and estimates for-hire trucking demand by combining data from over forty freight-generating industries using a weighted geometric mean based on the Commodity Flow Surveys.
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The index reports a 0.6% decrease in May from April but a 1.0% increase year over year. The decline is linked to weaker production in nonmetallic mineral products (NAICS 327) and construction wholesaling (NAICS 4233), reflecting the slowdown in single-family housing.
According to Prof Miller, “The May ton-mile index shows a slight cooling in demand compared to April. Given the ongoing weakness in manufacturing orders, I anticipate the index will struggle to improve in the second half of the year as new tariffs are implemented.”
Load-to-Truck Ratio
Last week, both load post volumes and carrier equipment posts saw a 6% decrease. Despite this, load post volumes are still 8% higher than last year. As a result, the dry van load-to-truck ratio stayed relatively stable at 6.09.
Note: To provide a clearer view of seasonal trends, the pandemic-influenced years of 2020, 2021, and 2022 have been excluded.
Linehaul spot rates
Dry van linehaul spot rates saw a $0.01 decrease last week, averaging just over $1.65 per mile, remaining $0.03 higher than the same time last year.
The average rate for DAT’s top 50 lanes by load volume decreased $0.01 per mile to $2.00 per mile and $0.35 higher than the national 7-day rolling average spot rate.
In the 13 key Midwest states, which represent 45% of national load volume and often indicate future national trends, spot rates fell by $0.03 per mile on a 1% lower volume of loads moved. Carriers in thesestates earned an average of $1.86 per mile, which is $0.21 above the national 7-day rolling average.
Note: To provide a clearer view of seasonal trends, the pandemic-influenced years of 2020, 2021, and 2022 have been excluded.
